The Implied Move Cheat Sheet: Reading Options Pricing Into Earnings

The implied move = price of the weekly at-the-money straddle, roughly. For Micron it's ~9% this week — elevated vs. its historical average post-earnings move.

How to use it:

• Implied > historical average: market expects an unusual print — being right on direction isn't enough, you need to be right on size
• Implied < historical: complacency — the surprise is cheaper than usual
• Post-print: IV collapses regardless of direction (that's the "IV crush" premium sellers harvest)

Quick math: MU straddle pricing ~9% means the market brackets roughly ±$40 of move. If your thesis needs a bigger swing than that, you're paying for a tail.

Test the straddle-vs-outcome math on Stock Picks.